Title

International Tourist Flows and Natural Disasters

Presenter Information

Jacob Clement

Document Type

Oral Presentation

Location

SURC 271

Start Date

16-5-2013

End Date

16-5-2013

Abstract

Uncertainties in forecasting international tourist flows present a significant challenge for both the tourism industry and for researchers. According to the World Tourism Organization (WTO) international tourist arrivals surpassed 1 billion of the first time in 2012, despite the global economic downturn. Empirical studies have shown than economic factors (i.e., Gross Domestic Product per capita, trade openness) have a large and significant impact on tourist arrivals. In this paper, we will investigate the impact of natural disasters and extreme weather events on tourist flows. We specify a fixed-effects econometric model in order to estimate the magnitude of disaster impacts on tourism flows. We find that earthquakes and floods have a negative and significant impact on tourist arrivals while other disasters such as fires and floods appear to have little effect. These results should be valuable for forecasters and policy analysts attempting to make reliable predictions about this important industry.

Faculty Mentor(s)

Toni Sipic

Additional Mentoring Department

Other

Additional Mentoring Department

Economics

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May 16th, 3:00 PM May 16th, 3:20 PM

International Tourist Flows and Natural Disasters

SURC 271

Uncertainties in forecasting international tourist flows present a significant challenge for both the tourism industry and for researchers. According to the World Tourism Organization (WTO) international tourist arrivals surpassed 1 billion of the first time in 2012, despite the global economic downturn. Empirical studies have shown than economic factors (i.e., Gross Domestic Product per capita, trade openness) have a large and significant impact on tourist arrivals. In this paper, we will investigate the impact of natural disasters and extreme weather events on tourist flows. We specify a fixed-effects econometric model in order to estimate the magnitude of disaster impacts on tourism flows. We find that earthquakes and floods have a negative and significant impact on tourist arrivals while other disasters such as fires and floods appear to have little effect. These results should be valuable for forecasters and policy analysts attempting to make reliable predictions about this important industry.