Do Imports Cause Economic Growth? A Time-Series Investigation of the U.S. Data

Document Type


Department or Administrative Unit


Publication Date

Fall 2005


This paper investigates the relationship between imports and economic growth in the US in the long run and the short run. Quarterly data ranging from the first quarter of 1970 to the fourth quarter of 2000 are used to investigate this relationship. Cointegration tests using Johansen's (] 988) technique are used to analyze the long run relationship between imports and economic growth (measured by nominal GDP). Test results indicate that imports and economic growth are related in the long run. The short run analysis of the data is conducted within vector error correction (VEC) testing framework. VEC rest results indicate that imports have a positive causal impact on economic growth in the US in the short run. Therefore, contrary w the conventional economic view, imports have aided economic growth in the U.S. during the period under investigation.


Journal of Business, Industry, and Economics