International Tourist Flows and Natural Disasters
Document Type
Oral Presentation
Campus where you would like to present
SURC 271
Start Date
16-5-2013
End Date
16-5-2013
Abstract
Uncertainties in forecasting international tourist flows present a significant challenge for both the tourism industry and for researchers. According to the World Tourism Organization (WTO) international tourist arrivals surpassed 1 billion of the first time in 2012, despite the global economic downturn. Empirical studies have shown than economic factors (i.e., Gross Domestic Product per capita, trade openness) have a large and significant impact on tourist arrivals. In this paper, we will investigate the impact of natural disasters and extreme weather events on tourist flows. We specify a fixed-effects econometric model in order to estimate the magnitude of disaster impacts on tourism flows. We find that earthquakes and floods have a negative and significant impact on tourist arrivals while other disasters such as fires and floods appear to have little effect. These results should be valuable for forecasters and policy analysts attempting to make reliable predictions about this important industry.
Recommended Citation
Clement, Jacob, "International Tourist Flows and Natural Disasters" (2013). Symposium Of University Research and Creative Expression (SOURCE). 19.
https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source/2013/oralpresentations/19
Additional Mentoring Department
Other
Additional Mentoring Department
Economics
International Tourist Flows and Natural Disasters
SURC 271
Uncertainties in forecasting international tourist flows present a significant challenge for both the tourism industry and for researchers. According to the World Tourism Organization (WTO) international tourist arrivals surpassed 1 billion of the first time in 2012, despite the global economic downturn. Empirical studies have shown than economic factors (i.e., Gross Domestic Product per capita, trade openness) have a large and significant impact on tourist arrivals. In this paper, we will investigate the impact of natural disasters and extreme weather events on tourist flows. We specify a fixed-effects econometric model in order to estimate the magnitude of disaster impacts on tourism flows. We find that earthquakes and floods have a negative and significant impact on tourist arrivals while other disasters such as fires and floods appear to have little effect. These results should be valuable for forecasters and policy analysts attempting to make reliable predictions about this important industry.
Faculty Mentor(s)
Toni Sipic