Macroeconomic Outlook
Document Type
Oral Presentation
Campus where you would like to present
Ellensburg
Event Website
https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source
Start Date
16-5-2019
End Date
16-5-2019
Abstract
This presentation will attempt to offer insight into near to medium term stock market movements by assessing the current macroeconomic conditions. The link between recessions and stock market corrections will be explored. The macroeconomic outlook, in particular, the probability of recession, will be assessed. Current unemployment rates, inflation rates, and interest rates will be analyzed in the context of an aggregate demand and aggregate supply model. Ultimately, current unemployment will be assess relative to the Non Accelerating Inflationary Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) / Natural Rate to understand future effects on inflation and hence Fed discount rates. The probability of a recession in the next 6 months and beyond will be assessed.
Recommended Citation
Ellestad, Blake; Tenerelli, Taliesin; and Eaves, Brian, "Macroeconomic Outlook" (2019). Symposium Of University Research and Creative Expression (SOURCE). 182.
https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source/2019/Oralpres/182
Department/Program
Economics
Macroeconomic Outlook
Ellensburg
This presentation will attempt to offer insight into near to medium term stock market movements by assessing the current macroeconomic conditions. The link between recessions and stock market corrections will be explored. The macroeconomic outlook, in particular, the probability of recession, will be assessed. Current unemployment rates, inflation rates, and interest rates will be analyzed in the context of an aggregate demand and aggregate supply model. Ultimately, current unemployment will be assess relative to the Non Accelerating Inflationary Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) / Natural Rate to understand future effects on inflation and hence Fed discount rates. The probability of a recession in the next 6 months and beyond will be assessed.
https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source/2019/Oralpres/182
Faculty Mentor(s)
Thomas Tenerelli