Title

Macroeconomic Outlook

Document Type

Oral Presentation

Campus where you would like to present

Ellensburg

Event Website

https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source

Start Date

16-5-2019

End Date

16-5-2019

Abstract

This presentation will attempt to offer insight into near to medium term stock market movements by assessing the current macroeconomic conditions. The link between recessions and stock market corrections will be explored. The macroeconomic outlook, in particular, the probability of recession, will be assessed. Current unemployment rates, inflation rates, and interest rates will be analyzed in the context of an aggregate demand and aggregate supply model. Ultimately, current unemployment will be assess relative to the Non Accelerating Inflationary Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) / Natural Rate to understand future effects on inflation and hence Fed discount rates. The probability of a recession in the next 6 months and beyond will be assessed.

Faculty Mentor(s)

Thomas Tenerelli

Department/Program

Economics

COinS
 
May 16th, 1:00 PM May 16th, 2:00 PM

Macroeconomic Outlook

Ellensburg

This presentation will attempt to offer insight into near to medium term stock market movements by assessing the current macroeconomic conditions. The link between recessions and stock market corrections will be explored. The macroeconomic outlook, in particular, the probability of recession, will be assessed. Current unemployment rates, inflation rates, and interest rates will be analyzed in the context of an aggregate demand and aggregate supply model. Ultimately, current unemployment will be assess relative to the Non Accelerating Inflationary Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) / Natural Rate to understand future effects on inflation and hence Fed discount rates. The probability of a recession in the next 6 months and beyond will be assessed.

https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source/2019/Oralpres/182