Macroeconomic Outlook
Document Type
Oral Presentation
Campus where you would like to present
Ellensburg
Event Website
https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source
Start Date
18-5-2020
Abstract
This presentation will attempt to offer insight into near-to-medium-term stock market movements by assessing the current macroeconomic conditions and the current stock market valuation relative to historical levels. The relationship between recessions and stock market corrections will be identified. The macroeconomic outlook, in particular, the probability of recession, will be evaluated. Current unemployment rates, inflation rates, and interest rates will be analyzed in the context of an aggregate demand and aggregate supply model. Ultimately, current unemployment will be measured relative to the perceived Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) / Natural Rate to understand future effects on wage inflation and hence Fed discount rates. The probability of a recession in the next 6 months and beyond will be assessed. Stock market valuation will also be analyzed to better understand the downside stock market risk in any potential future recession.
Recommended Citation
Zinn, Derek and Ganzorig, Jargal, "Macroeconomic Outlook" (2020). Symposium Of University Research and Creative Expression (SOURCE). 6.
https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source/2020/COB/6
Department/Program
Finance & Supply Chain Management
Additional Mentoring Department
https://cwu.studentopportunitycenter.com/2020/04/macroeconomic-outlook/
Macroeconomic Outlook
Ellensburg
This presentation will attempt to offer insight into near-to-medium-term stock market movements by assessing the current macroeconomic conditions and the current stock market valuation relative to historical levels. The relationship between recessions and stock market corrections will be identified. The macroeconomic outlook, in particular, the probability of recession, will be evaluated. Current unemployment rates, inflation rates, and interest rates will be analyzed in the context of an aggregate demand and aggregate supply model. Ultimately, current unemployment will be measured relative to the perceived Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) / Natural Rate to understand future effects on wage inflation and hence Fed discount rates. The probability of a recession in the next 6 months and beyond will be assessed. Stock market valuation will also be analyzed to better understand the downside stock market risk in any potential future recession.
https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source/2020/COB/6
Faculty Mentor(s)
Thomas Tenerelli