Title

Macroeconomic Outlook

Document Type

Oral Presentation

Campus where you would like to present

Ellensburg

Event Website

https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source

Start Date

18-5-2020

Abstract

This presentation will attempt to offer insight into near-to-medium-term stock market movements by assessing the current macroeconomic conditions and the current stock market valuation relative to historical levels. The relationship between recessions and stock market corrections will be identified. The macroeconomic outlook, in particular, the probability of recession, will be evaluated. Current unemployment rates, inflation rates, and interest rates will be analyzed in the context of an aggregate demand and aggregate supply model. Ultimately, current unemployment will be measured relative to the perceived Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) / Natural Rate to understand future effects on wage inflation and hence Fed discount rates. The probability of a recession in the next 6 months and beyond will be assessed. Stock market valuation will also be analyzed to better understand the downside stock market risk in any potential future recession.

Faculty Mentor(s)

Thomas Tenerelli

Department/Program

Finance & Supply Chain Management

Additional Mentoring Department

https://cwu.studentopportunitycenter.com/2020/04/macroeconomic-outlook/

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COinS
 
May 18th, 12:00 PM

Macroeconomic Outlook

Ellensburg

This presentation will attempt to offer insight into near-to-medium-term stock market movements by assessing the current macroeconomic conditions and the current stock market valuation relative to historical levels. The relationship between recessions and stock market corrections will be identified. The macroeconomic outlook, in particular, the probability of recession, will be evaluated. Current unemployment rates, inflation rates, and interest rates will be analyzed in the context of an aggregate demand and aggregate supply model. Ultimately, current unemployment will be measured relative to the perceived Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) / Natural Rate to understand future effects on wage inflation and hence Fed discount rates. The probability of a recession in the next 6 months and beyond will be assessed. Stock market valuation will also be analyzed to better understand the downside stock market risk in any potential future recession.

https://digitalcommons.cwu.edu/source/2020/COB/6